Open Your Financial Kimono

Journal & Topics

Journal & Topics Media Group | Serving Chicago’s Great Northwest Suburbs
June, 2020

THIS WAY TO WEALTH:

By CHRIS EVERETT

Why in the world do you need to open your financial kimono to a financial planner?

Isn’t it obvious?  It’s like going to a doctor for the first time.  They want to see everything, right?  If not, find another doctor.

The same is true for your finances.

Hire a fiduciary financial planner who can help you see what you can’t see.  Eight out of ten people I see are leaking significant amounts of money unknowingly and very unnecessarily. 

If a fiduciary helps you rescue minimally tens of thousands of dollars, and in many cases hundreds of thousands of dollars over your lifetime, they are well worth the cost.

And for those “Do-It-Yourself” investors, you can still do your own investing if you want, just get clarity about the structure.  If you are focused on investments only, you are probably seriously leaking.  I see it over and over again.

Here’s an example:  Don was a trader and he was making his wife uncomfortable.  She had seen large swings in their financial comfort over the years and could not get him to commit to a second opinion. What she was really saying is that she wanted him to stop trading.

What?  There’s no way to make a tiger change his stripes. I told her it wasn’t necessary for him to stop, and she gave me one of those very puzzled looks. 

It’s simple.  Just ask him to commit to come together to see the big picture.  It worked because he learned I was not going to try and “get” his investments under my management.

So, we had both of them pull all their data and expenses together.  I also had them do a communication profile that helps me understand how they process information, manage change, face risk and problem solve.  A little side note, these are valuable reports, but they are also great date night fodder.  They ended up using this report to create new language in their relationship which was lovely.

Back to their story.  Don was unaware of a lot. And as a self-confessed bread winner, he was apologetic to his wife when I showed them.  Here’s his list of must do’s:

  • Upgrade their liability protection because many of their assets were exposed and could have created a $3m wealth leak.
  • Fix their life insurance since it was about to run out and he wasn’t paying attention – a $3m potential wealth leak.
  • Get the beneficiaries correct – that was a rude awakening for her – a $1.5m potential wealth leak
  • Upgrade his disability insurance – if he goes down, so does the ship – with 10 years to go until retirement, a potential $4m wealth leak.
  • Diversify their asset container type to have different tax outcomes and a lower tax result longer term – a potential wealth leak of approximately $500k.
  • Finish their legal work that had been started three years ago
  • And yes, we also looked at his investments and gave him more to consider to smooth out his results.

During the course of working together, he referred me to some of his friends.  He said I never made him feel stupid.  He said it was cathartic and removed some of the stress.  He got clarity and a step-by-step process to follow as they repaired what was broken and potentially very harmful to their financial security.

I love what I do.  It is our pleasure to offer a pre-Discovery phone call or Zoom meeting if you are interested in a fiduciary relationship.

For more information or to schedule with Chris Everett visit www.EverettWealthSolutions.com or call 708-771-7777.  Everett Wealth Solutions, Inc. is a registered investment advisor providing fee-only financial planning and asset management services. Everett Wealth Solutions is located at 407 Marengo Avenue in Forest Park, IL and because of technology works with clients around the country. She’s a Retirement Shield Class Instructor and also heard on WGN, WBBM News Radio and seen on Business Firm AM Television.

Opinion: Stocks will revisit their coronavirus crash low, and here’s when to expect it

U.S. market history points to a final bottom in August

“Is the great coronavirus bear market of 2020 now history? Many exuberant bulls would have you believe that it is, since the S&P 500 SPX, +1.44% is now more than 20% higher than its mid-March low. That satisfies the semi-official definition of a bull market.

So in that narrow sense, the bulls are right. But in a broader sense, I consider their arguments to be a triumph of hope over experience. If by definition we’re in a new bull market, the question we should be asking is different: Will the stock market hit a new low later this year, lower than where it stood at the March low?

I’m convinced the answer is “yes.” My study of past bear markets revealed a number of themes, each of which points to the March low being broken in coming weeks or months.

While the market’s rally since its March 23 low has been explosive, it’s not unprecedented. Since the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.22% was created in the late 1800s, there have been 38 other occasions where it rallied just as much (or more) in just as short a period — and all of them occurred during the Great Depression.

Such ominous parallels are a powerful reminder that the market can explode upward during the context of a devastating long-term decline. Consider the bull- and bear-market calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. According to it, there were no fewer than six bull markets between the 1929 stock market crash and the end of the 1930s. I doubt an investor interviewed in 1939 about his experience of the Great Depression would have highlighted those bull markets.

Another way of making the same point is to measure the number of days between the end of the bear market’s first leg down and its eventual end. There are 11 bear markets in the Ned Davis calendar in which the Dow fell by more than the 37.1% loss it incurred between its February 2020 high to its March low. On average across those 11, as you can see from the chart below, the final bear market low came 137 days after first registering such a loss. If we add that average to the day of the March low, we come up with a projected low on Aug. 7.

More bearishness needed

Sentiment also points to a lower low for the U.S. market. That’s because the usual pattern is for the final bear-market bottom to be accompanied by thoroughgoing pessimism and despair. That’s not what we’ve seen over the last couple of weeks. In fact, just the opposite is evident — eagerness to declare that the worst is now behind us.

Another way of putting this: When the bear market does finally hit its low, you are unlikely to even be asking whether the bear has breathed his last. You’re more likely at that point to have given up on equities altogether, throwing in the towel and cautioning anyone who would listen that any rally attempt is nothing but a bear-market trap to lure gullible bulls.

I compared sentiment during the recent bear market to that of other bear markets of the past 40 years in a Wall Street Journal column earlier this week. For the most part, the market timers I monitor were more scared at the lows of those prior bear markets than they have been recently. That’s very revealing.

Volatility offers clues

A similar conclusion is reached when we focus on the CBOE’s Volatility Index, or VIX VIX, -3.87% . An analysis of all bear markets since 1990 shows that the VIX almost always hits its high well before the bear market registers its final low. The only two exceptions came after the 9-11 terrorist attacks and at the end of the two-month bear market in 1998 that accompanied the bankruptcy of Long Term Capital Management. In those two cases, the VIX’s high came on the same day of the bear market’s low.

Other than those two exceptions, the average lead time of the VIX’s peak to the bear market low was 90 days. Add that to the day on which the VIX hit its peak (Mar. 16) and you get a projected low on Jun. 14.

One way of summing up these historical precedents: We should expect a retest of the market’s March low. In fact, according to an analysis conducted by Ned Davis Research, 70% of the time over the past century the Dow has broken below the lows hit at the bottom of any waterfall decline.

In truth, there’s no universal definition of a “waterfall decline.” The authors of the Ned Davis study, Ed Clissold, Chief U.S. Strategist, and Thanh Nguyen, Senior Quantitative Analyst, defined it as “persistent selling over multiple weeks, no more than two up days in a row, a surge in volume, and a collapse in investor confidence.” That certainly seems reasonable, and the market’s free-fall from its February high to its March low surely satisfies these criteria.

Upon studying past declines that also satisfied these criteria, the analysts wrote: “The temptation [at the end of a waterfall decline] is to breathe a sigh of relief that the waterfall is over and jump back into the market. History suggests that a more likely scenario is a basing and testing period that includes a breaching of the waterfall lows.””

Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at mark@hulbertratings.com

Read more of the original article: www.marketwatch.com

Published: April 10, 2020 at 12:52 p.m. ET

By Mark Hulbert